New York Mets at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and predictions (2024)

The New York Mets (36-38) will square off again with the Chicago Cubs (36-40) Saturday afternoon. First pitch is set for 2:20 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’slines around the Mets vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 3-2.

The Mets have climbed back into the National League Wild Card race with their recent hot play. They have won 8 of their last 9 games and 13 of their last 16. They pounded the Cubs 11-1 Friday, scoring 10 runs off LHP Shota Imanaga.

The Cubs have been headed in the opposite direction. They are 9-18 in their last 27 games and 3-4 on their current homestand that wraps up Sunday. Their pitching is starting to falter as they’re now 15th with a 3.96 ERA.

Mets at Cubs projected starters

RHP Tylor Megill vs. RHP Jameson Taillon

Megill (2-3, 3.52 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.30 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 through 30 2/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 5 K Sunday against San Diego Padres
• 1 career start vs. Cubs: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K May 23, 2023

Taillon (3-3, 3.08 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 through 61 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K Sunday against St. Louis Cardinals
• Last 5 starts vs. Mets: 3-0, 2.10 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 21 K in 34 1/3 IP

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Mets at Cubs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Mets -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Cubs -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-200) | Cubs -1.5 (-150)
• Over/Under (O/U): 12 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Mets at Cubs picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 6, Cubs 4

Moneyline

The Mets bats have been red-hot, as they rank 2nd in wRC+ during the month of June and have scored 46 runs in their last 5 games (9.2 per game). Meanwhile, the Chicago offense has been scuffling, with just 41 runs scored in their last 13 games (3.2 per game).

Taillon has been solid all season, but he has clearly outpitched his peripherals. There is little margin for error with his pitch-to-contact approach, and regression may soon set in. Back the METS -105.

Run line/Against the spread

This lines up to be a pretty close game and while the Mets look like a good bet to win, laying 2:1 odds at +1.5 is a little too steep. PASSon the run line.

Over/Under

The Mets have been scoring a lot of runs and should have another productive day against Taillon, though he should be able to avoid a total disaster. On the other side, Megill has a history of road struggles, mainly due to the long ball (1.8 HR/9). But the Cubs rank in the bottom half of the league in home runs and in runs per game at home, and he’s catching them at a good time. Still, the wind is blowing out at 18 mph to straightaway center. This number is a little too inflated, though. Look for this game to sneak in UNDER 12 (-115).

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