Storm Prediction Center Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Aug 10, 2024 (2024)

Day 3 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
-Critical Area-40%(blue)
-Marginal Area-10%(brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
-Critical Area-70%(red)
-Marginal Area-40%(orange)

Day 4 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
-Critical Area-40%(blue)
-Marginal Area-10%(brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
-Critical Area-70%(red)
-Marginal Area-40%(orange)

Day 5 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
-Critical Area-40%(blue)
-Marginal Area-10%(brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
-Critical Area-70%(red)
-Marginal Area-40%(orange)

Day 6 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
-Critical Area-40%(blue)
-Marginal Area-10%(brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
-Critical Area-70%(red)
-Marginal Area-40%(orange)

Day 7 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
-Critical Area-40%(blue)
-Marginal Area-10%(brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
-Critical Area-70%(red)
-Marginal Area-40%(orange)

Day 8 Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
-Critical Area-40%(blue)
-Marginal Area-10%(brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
-Critical Area-70%(red)
-Marginal Area-40%(orange)

 ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 102036 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across portions of the Great Basin through the upcoming work week, though confidence in widespread critical conditions is limited for much of the forecast period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual amplification of the upper-level regime with ridging across the central CONUS into the Rockies and the development of a mean trough along/off the West Coast. This synoptic regime will favor multiple shortwave perturbations propagating across the West Coast/Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Each wave will bring isolated to scattered rain/thunderstorm chances across the Four Corners (where monsoonal moisture should remain relatively abundant) and Pacific Northwest as well as breezy conditions to parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Monday - Nevada... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of CA and NV through the forecast period with ensemble guidance showing limited potential for wetting rainfall. Consequently, fuels will remain receptive and/or continue to gradually dry. A progressive shortwave trough is forecast to move across the region late D3/Mon into D4/Tues. As this occurs, the low-level mass response should induce strengthening south/southwesterly winds in excess of 15 mph (with higher winds expected within terrain-prone locations). The downslope flow regime off of the Sierra Nevada should maintain widespread RH values in the teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected with areas of critical conditions possible. Beyond D3/Mon, subsequent upper disturbances may support additional days of dry/windy conditions in the lee of the Sierra Nevada and across central to eastern NV. However, spread among deterministic solutions and low ensemble probabilities for meeting critical thresholds limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...D3/Monday to D4/Tuesday - Pacific Northwest... Although a gradual cooling trend is anticipated for much of the Pacific Northwest, isolated thunderstorms over dry fuels may support some fire weather concerns - especially D3/Mon night into early D4/Tues as a progressive shortwave trough moves across the region. Confidence in the propensity for dry thunderstorms is limited at this range, but trends will be monitored given recent lightning starts across the region. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT